External validation and updating of prediction models of bleeding risk in patients with cancer receiving anticoagulants.

OBJECTIVE: Patients with cancer are at increased bleeding risk, and anticoagulants increase this risk even more. Yet, validated bleeding risk models for prediction of bleeding risk in patients with cancer are lacking. The aim of this study is to predict bleeding risk in anticoagulated patients with cancer. METHODS: We performed a study using the routine healthcare database of the Julius General Practitioners' Network. Five bleeding risk models were selected for external validation. Patients with a new cancer episode during anticoagulant treatment or those initiating anticoagulation during active cancer were included. The outcome was the composite of major bleeding and clinically relevant non-major (CRNM) bleeding. Next, we internally validated an updated bleeding risk model accounting for the competing risk of death. RESULTS: The validation cohort consisted of 1304 patients with cancer, mean age 74.0±10.9 years, 52.2% males. In total 215 (16.5%) patients developed a first major or CRNM bleeding during a mean follow-up of 1.5 years (incidence rate; 11.0 per 100 person-years (95% CI 9.6 to 12.5)). The c-statistics of all selected bleeding risk models were low, around 0.56. Internal validation of an updated model accounting for death as competing risk showed a slightly improved c-statistic of 0.61 (95% CI 0.54 to 0.70). On updating, only age and a history of bleeding appeared to contribute to the prediction of bleeding risk. CONCLUSIONS: Existing bleeding risk models cannot accurately differentiate bleeding risk between patients. Future studies may use our updated model as a starting point for further development of bleeding risk models in patients with cancer.

Increased plasma levels of NT-proBNP, Troponin T and GDF-15 are driven by persistent AF and associated comorbidities: Data from the AF-RISK study.

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a progressive disease, and early recognition and management may reflect an important strategy to reduce its disease burden. In this study, we evaluated plasma levels of three biomarkers - N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NTproBNP), Troponin-T, and growth differentiation factor-15 (GDF-15) - in patients with paroxysmal AF (pAF) (≤7 days of continuous AF, n = 323) and persistent AF ((AF duration > 7 days and < 1 year, n = 84) using patients from AF RISK study (NCT01510210). In this AF-RISK sub-study, patients with persistent AF experienced more symptoms (higher European Heart Rhythm Association class (p < 0.001)), had a higher comorbidity burden (p < 0.001), and had more unfavorable echocardiographic parameters (p < 0.001). All three biomarker levels were significantly higher in patients with persistent AF as compared to those with pAF (p < 0.001). Multivariate linear regression analyses showed that age (beta-coefficient for NTproBNP: 0.21; GDF-15: 0.41; Troponin-T: 0.23) and CHA2DS2-VASc (beta-coefficient for NTproBNP: 0.20; GDF-15: 0.25; Troponin-T: 0.27) were determinants of all three biomarkers, and that persistent AF determined NTproBNP (beta-coefficient: 0.34), but not Troponin-T and GDF-15. More detailed analysis of CHA2DS2-VASc score showed that for all three biomarkers age, coronary artery disease and heart failure were determinants of plasma biomarkers levels, whereas sex determined NTproBNP and Troponin T, and hypertension determined NTproBNP and GDF15. Overall, this study therefore suggests that in AF, Troponin T and GDF15, and especially NTproBNP could be used to detect those patients with more persistent form of AF that may warrant more aggressive treatment of AF and concomitant comorbidities. Future studies, however, are essential to evaluate if more aggressive AF treatment and risk factor management will reduce disease progression and holds a novel therapeutic intervention to reduce the burden of AF.

Rationale and design of the PHOspholamban RElated CArdiomyopathy intervention STudy (i-PHORECAST).

BACKGROUND: The p.Arg14del (c.40_42delAGA) phospholamban (PLN) pathogenic variant is a founder mutation that causes dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) and arrhythmogenic cardiomyopathy (ACM). Carriers are at increased risk of malignant ventricular arrhythmias and heart failure, which has been ascribed to cardiac fibrosis. Importantly, cardiac fibrosis appears to be an early feature of the disease, occurring in many presymptomatic carriers before the onset of overt disease. As with most monogenic cardiomyopathies, no evidence-based treatment is available for presymptomatic carriers. AIMS: The PHOspholamban RElated CArdiomyopathy intervention STudy (iPHORECAST) is designed to demonstrate that pre-emptive treatment of presymptomatic PLN p.Arg14del carriers using eplerenone, a mineralocorticoid receptor antagonist with established antifibrotic effects, can reduce disease progression and postpone the onset of overt disease. METHODS: iPHORECAST has a multicentre, prospective, randomised, open-label, blinded endpoint (PROBE) design. Presymptomatic PLN p.Arg14del carriers are randomised to receive either 50 mg eplerenone once daily or no treatment. The primary endpoint of the study is a multiparametric assessment of disease progression including cardiac magnetic resonance parameters (left and right ventricular volumes, systolic function and fibrosis), electrocardiographic parameters (QRS voltage, ventricular ectopy), signs and/or symptoms related to DCM and ACM, and cardiovascular death. The follow-up duration is set at 3 years. BASELINE RESULTS: A total of 84 presymptomatic PLN p.Arg14del carriers (n = 42 per group) were included. By design, at baseline, all participants were in New York Heart Association (NHYA) class I and had a left ventricular ejection fraction > 45% and < 2500 ventricular premature contractions during 24-hour Holter monitoring. There were no statistically significant differences between the two groups in any of the baseline characteristics. The study is currently well underway, with the last participants expected to finish in 2021. CONCLUSION: iPHORECAST is a multicentre, prospective randomised controlled trial designed to address whether pre-emptive treatment of PLN p.Arg14del carriers with eplerenone can prevent or delay the onset of cardiomyopathy. iPHORECAST has been registered in the clinicaltrials.gov-register (number: NCT01857856).

Heart rate increase and inappropriate sinus tachycardia after cryoballoon pulmonary vein isolation for atrial fibrillation.

BACKGROUND: Cryoballoon pulmonary vein isolation (PVI) is a common therapy for atrial fibrillation (AF). While moderately increased sinus rhythm heart rate (HR) after PVI has been observed, inappropriate sinus tachycardia (IST) is a rare phenomenon. We aimed to investigate the prevalence and natural history of an abnormal sinus HR response after cryoballoon PVI. METHODS: We included 169/646 (26.2%) patients with AF undergoing PVI with available Holter recordings before and 3, 6 and 12 months after the procedure. Patients with AF on Holter monitoring were excluded. Mean HR increase ≥ 20 bpm or an IST-like pattern (mean HR > 90 bpm or > 80 bpm when beta-blocking agents were used) following PVI was categorised as abnormal sinus HR response. RESULTS: Following PVI, mean HR ± standard deviation increased in the entire group from 63.5 ± 8.4 to 69.1 ± 9.9 bpm at 3 months (p < 0.001), and to 71.9 ± 9.4 bpm at 6 months (p < 0.001). At 12 months, mean HR was 71.2 ± 10.1 bpm (p < 0.001). Only 7/169 patients (4.1%) met criteria for abnormal sinus HR response: mean HR was 61.9 ± 10.6 bpm (pre-ablation), 84.6 ± 9.8 bpm (3 months), 80.1 ± 6.5 bpm (6 months) and 76.3 ± 10.1 bpm (12 months). Even at 12 months, mean HR was significantly different from that pre-ablation in this group (p = 0.033). However, in patients meeting IST-like pattern criteria, mean HR at 12 months was no longer significantly different from that pre-ablation. CONCLUSION: Few patients had an abnormal sinus HR response after PVI. Peak HR was observed 3 months after PVI, but HR was still significantly increased 12 months post-ablation compared with pre-ablation. An IST-like pattern was rarely observed. In these patients, HR decreased to pre-ablation values within a year.

Gut-microbe derived TMAO and its association with more progressed forms of AF: Results from the AF-RISK study.

INTRODUCTION: The importance of gut microbiome in cardiovascular disease has been increasingly recognized. Trimethylamine N-oxide (TMAO) is a gut microbe-derived metabolite that is associated with cardiovascular disease, including atrial fibrillation (AF). The role of TMAO in clinical AF progression however remains unknown. METHODS AND RESULTS: In this study we measured TMAO and its precursor (betaine, choline, and L- carnitine) levels in 78 patients using plasma samples from patients that participated in the AF-RISK study. 56 patients suffered from paroxysmal AF and 22 had a short history of persistent AF. TMAO levels were significantly higher in patients with persistent AF, as compared to those with paroxysmal AF (median [IQR] 5.65 [4.7-9.6] m/z versus 4.31 [3.2-6.2] m/z, p < 0.05), while precursor levels did not differ. In univariate analysis, we observed that for every unit increase in TMAO, the odds for having persistent AF increased with 0.44 [0.14-0.73], p < 0.01. Conclusion: These results suggest that higher levels of TMAO are associated with more progressed forms of AF. We therefore hypothesize that increased TMAO levels may reflect disease progression in humans. Larger studies are required to validate these preliminary findings.Trial Registration number: Clinicaltrials.gov NCT01510210.

Genetically-determined body mass index and the risk of atrial fibrillation progression in men and women.

AIMS: Limited causal evidence is available on the relationship between body mass index (BMI) and atrial fibrillation (AF) progression. Sex differences have been noted and may be relevant for AF progression. We investigated the association between the BMI Genetic Risk Score (GRS) and AF progression in men and women of the Groningen Genetic Atrial Fibrillation (GGAF) cohort. METHODS AND RESULTS: The GGAF cohort (n = 2207) is a composite of 5 prospective cohorts with individuals of European ancestry. AF patients with genetic information, with at least 12 months follow-up and AF progression data were included. AF progression was defined as progression from paroxysmal to persistent/permanent AF, or persistent to permanent AF. A BMI GRS was constructed of genetic variants associated with BMI. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression analyses were performed in the total population and in men and women, separately. During a median follow-up of 34 [interquartile range 19-48] months 630 AF patients (mean age 62±11, 36% women, BMI of 28±5) were analyzed, and men and women developed similar AF progression rates (respectively 6.5% versus 6.1%). The BMI GRS was not associated with AF progression either as a continuous variable or in tertiles in the overall population. However, the BMI GRS was associated with the tertile of the highest BMI GRS in women (n = 225), also after multivariable adjustments of clinical risk factors (Hazard ratio 2.611 (95% confidence interval 1.151-5.924) p = 0.022). CONCLUSIONS: Genetically-determined BMI is only associated with women at risk of AF progression. The results may be supporting evidence for a causal link between observed BMI and AF progression in women. We emphasize the need for further investigation of genetically determined BMI and observed BMI to optimize AF management in women with increased risk for AF progression.

Paradigm shifts in pathophysiology and management of atrial fibrillation-a tale of the RACE trials in the Netherlands.

In the past 20 years the Netherlands-based RACE trials have investigated important concepts in clinical atrial fibrillation (AF). Their scope ranged from rhythm versus rate control to early or delayed cardioversion and also included early comprehensive management of AF in two trials, one focusing on early 'upstream therapy' and risk factor management and the other on integrated chronic nurse-led care. Studies were mostly triggered by simple clinical observations including futility of electrical cardioversion in persistent AF; many patients with permanent AF tolerating day-after-day 'uncontrolled' resting heart rates of up till 110 beats/min; patients being threatened more by vascular risks than AF itself; and insufficient guideline-based treatments for AF. Also the observation that recent-onset atrial fibrillation generally converts spontaneously, obviating cardioversion, triggered one of the studies. The RACE trials shifted a number of paradigms and by that could change the AF guidelines. The initial 'shock-and-forget' attitude made place for increased attention for anticoagulation, and in turn, broader vascular risks were recognised. In a nutshell, the adage eventually became: 'look beyond the ECG, treat the patient'.

PREVENTION-ACHD: PRospEctiVE study on implaNTable cardioverter-defibrillator therapy and suddeN cardiac death in Adults with Congenital Heart Disease; Rationale and Design.

BACKGROUND: Many adult congenital heart disease (ACHD) patients are at risk of sudden cardiac death (SCD). An implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) may prevent SCD, but the evidence for primary prevention indications is still unsatisfactory. STUDY DESIGN: PREVENTION-ACHD is a prospective study with which we aim to prospectively validate a new risk score model for primary prevention of SCD in ACHD patients, as well as the currently existing guideline recommendations. Patients are screened using a novel risk score to predict SCD as well as current ICD indications according to an international Consensus Statement. Patients are followed up for two years. The primary endpoint is the occurrence of SCD and sustained ventricular arrhythmias. The Study was registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT03957824). CONCLUSION: PREVENTION-ACHD is the first prospective study on SCD in ACHD patients. In the light of a growing and aging population of patients with more severe congenital heart defects, more robust clinical evidence on primary prevention of SCD is urgently needed.

Hybrid atrial fibrillation ablation in patients with persistent atrial fibrillation or failed catheter ablation.

BACKGROUND: Combined 'hybrid' thoracoscopic and percutaneous atrial fibrillation (AF) ablation is a strategy used to treat AF in patients with therapy-resistant symptomatic AF. We aimed to study efficacy and safety of single-stage hybrid AF ablation in patients with symptomatic persistent AF, or paroxysmal AF with failed endocardial ablation, and assess determinants of success and quality of life. METHODS: We included consecutive patients undergoing single-stage hybrid AF ablation. First, we performed epicardial ablation, via thoracoscopic access, to isolate the pulmonary veins and superior caval vein and to create a posterior left atrial box. Thereafter, isolation was assessed endocardially and complementary endocardial ablation was performed, followed by cavotricuspid isthmus ablation. Efficacy was assessed by 12-lead electrocardiography and 72-hour Holter monitoring after 3, 6 and 12 months. Recurrence was defined as AF/atrial flutter/tachycardia recorded by electrocardiography or Holter monitoring lasting >30 s during 1­year follow-up. RESULTS: Fifty patients were included, 57 ± 9 years, 38 (76%) men, 5 (10%) paroxysmal, 34 (68%) persistent and 11 (22%) long-standing persistent AF. At 1­year 38 (76%) maintained sinus rhythm off antiarrhythmic drugs. Majority of recurrences were atrial flutter (9/12 patients). Success was associated with type of AF (p = 0.039). Patients with paroxysmal AF had highest success, patients with longstanding persistent AF had lowest success. Seven (14%) patients had procedure-related complications. Quality of life improved after ablation in patients who maintained sinus rhythm. CONCLUSION: Success of single-stage hybrid AF ablation was 76% off antiarrhythmic drugs, being associated with type of AF. Quality of life improved significantly, Procedure-related complications occurred in 14%.

Stroke risk in patients with device-detected atrial high-rate episodes.

Cardiovascular implantable electronic devices (CIEDs) can detect atrial arrhythmias, i. e. atrial high-rate episodes (AHRE). The thrombo-embolic risk in patients showing AHRE appears to be lower than in patients with clinical atrial fibrillation (AF) and it is unclear whether the former will benefit from oral anticoagulants. Based on currently available evidence, it seems reasonable to consider antithrombotic therapy in patients without documented AF showing AHRE >24 hours and a CHA2DS2-VASc score (congestive heart failure, hypertension, age ≥75 years [doubled], diabetes mellitus, prior stroke [doubled], vascular disease, age 65-74 years and female sex) ≥1, awaiting definite answers from ongoing randomised clinical trials. In patients with AHRE <24 hours, current literature does not support starting oral anticoagulation. In these patients, intensifying CIED read-outs can be considered to find progression in AHRE duration sooner, enhancing timely stroke prevention. The notion that AHRE and stroke coincide perseveres but should be abandoned since CIED data show a clear disconnect.

[Cardiac resynchronization therapy: who is a candidate and who is not?] / Cardiale-resynchronisatietherapie.

- Cardiac resynchronisation therapy (CRT) is a treatment for patients with impaired cardiac pump function (left ventricular ejection fraction ≤ 35%) and a wide QRS complex who, despite maximum tolerated medical therapy, remain symptomatic.- In addition to reducing symptoms, CRT can reduce hospital admissions and improve survival.- Selection of patients for CRT remains difficult. Despite the fact that predicting and influencing success of CRT has improved, ~30% of patients do not respond to the therapy.- Optimizing therapy and follow-up of patients after implantation requires a multidisciplinary approach tailored to the individual patient.- Cardiac rehabilitation with life style advices and structured exercise training maximizes patient benefit from CRT.

Tailored treatment strategies: a new approach for modern management of atrial fibrillation.

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is not benign. Cardiovascular diseases and risk factors differ importantly amongst patients. Careful phenotyping with the aim to start tailored therapy may improve outcome and quality of life. Furthermore, structural remodelling plays an important role in initiation and progression of AF. Therapies that interfere in the remodelling processes are promising because they may modify the atrial substrate. However, success is still limited probably due to variations in the underlying substrate in individual patients. The most favourable effects of lifestyle changes on success of rhythm control have been demonstrated in obese patients with AF. Differences in genotype may also play an important role. Common gene variants have been associated with recurrence of AF after electrical cardioversion, antiarrhythmic drug therapy and catheter ablation. Therefore, both phenotyping and genotyping may become useful for patient selection in the future. Beside the choice of rate or rhythm control, and type of rhythm control, prevention of complications associated with AF may also differ depending on genotype and phenotype. Efficacy of stroke prevention has been well established, but bleeding remains a clinically relevant problem. Risk stratification is still cumbersome, especially in low-risk patients and in those with a high bleeding risk. The decision whether to start anticoagulation (and if so which type of anticoagulant) or, alternatively, to implant an occlusion device of the left atrial appendage may also be improved by genotyping and phenotyping. In this review, we will summarize new insights into the roles of phenotype and genotype in generating more tailored treatment strategies in patients with AF and discuss several patient-tailored treatment options.

Female sex as an independent risk factor for stroke in atrial fibrillation: possible mechanisms.

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is an independent risk factor for thromboembolism and stroke. Women with AF are at a higher overall risk for thromboembolic stroke when compared to men with AF. Recent evidence suggests that female sex, after adjusting for stroke risk profile and sex differences in utilisation of anticoagulation, is an independent stroke risk factor in AF. The inclusion of female sex has improved the accuracy of the CHADS2 stroke risk stratification schema (Congestive heart failure, Hypertension, Age 75 years or greater, Diabetes mellitus, and prior Stroke or TIA). The newly revised and validated schema, CHA2DS2-VASc, dichotomises age and incorporates female sex and vascular disease history. The pathophysiological mechanisms to explain this increased risk in women are not well understood. According to Virchow's triad, thrombosis that leads to stroke in AF should arise from three co-existing phenomena: structural abnormalities, blood stasis, and a hypercoagulable state. Herein, we explore the sex differences in the biological processes that lead to thrombus formation as applied to Virchow's Triad. The objective of this review is to describe the potential mechanisms behind the increased risk of stroke in AF associated with female sex.

Routine versus aggressive upstream rhythm control for prevention of early atrial fibrillation in heart failure: background, aims and design of the RACE 3 study.

BACKGROUND: Rhythm control for atrial fibrillation (AF) is cumbersome because of its progressive nature caused by structural remodelling. Upstream therapy refers to therapeutic interventions aiming to modify the atrial substrate, leading to prevention of AF. OBJECTIVE: The Routine versus Aggressive upstream rhythm Control for prevention of Early AF in heart failure (RACE 3) study hypothesises that aggressive upstream rhythm control increases persistence of sinus rhythm compared with conventional rhythm control in patients with early AF and mild-to-moderate early systolic or diastolic heart failure undergoing electrical cardioversion. DESIGN: RACE 3 is a prospective, randomised, open, multinational, multicenter trial. Upstream rhythm control consists of angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors and/or angiotensin receptor blockers, mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists, statins, cardiac rehabilitation therapy, and intensive counselling on dietary restrictions, exercise maintenance, and drug adherence. Conventional rhythm control consists of routine rhythm control therapy without cardiac rehabilitation therapy and intensive counselling. In both arms, every effort is made to keep patients in the rhythm control strategy, and ion channel antiarrhythmic drugs or pulmonary vein ablation may be instituted if AF relapses. Total inclusion will be 250 patients. If upstream therapy proves to be effective in improving maintenance of sinus rhythm, it could become a new approach to rhythm control supporting conventional pharmacological and non-pharmacological rhythm control.

Recurrent and founder mutations in the Netherlands-Phospholamban p.Arg14del mutation causes arrhythmogenic cardiomyopathy.

BACKGROUND: Recently, we showed that the c.40_42delAGA (p.Arg14del) mutation in the phospholamban (PLN) gene can be identified in 10-15 % of Dutch patients with dilated cardiomyopathy or arrhythmogenic cardiomyopathy. The arrhythmogenic burden of the p.Arg14del mutation was illustrated by the high rate of appropriate ICD discharges and a positive family history for sudden cardiac death. METHODS: Our goal was to evaluate the geographical distribution and the origin of this specific mutation in the Netherlands and to get an estimation of the prevalence in a Dutch population cohort. Therefore, we investigated the postal codes of the places of residence of PLN p.Arg14del mutation carriers and places of birth of their ancestors. In addition, a large population-based cohort (PREVEND) was screened for the presence of this mutation. RESULTS: By April 2012, we had identified 101 probands carrying the PLN p.Arg14del mutation. A total of 358 family members were also found to carry this mutation, resulting in a total of 459 mutation carriers. The majority of mutation carriers live in the northern part of the Netherlands and analysing their grandparents' places of birth indicated that the mutation likely originated in the eastern part of the province of Friesland. In the PREVEND cohort we identified six heterozygous PLN p.Arg14del mutation carriers out of 8,267 subjects (0.07 %). CONCLUSION: The p.Arg14del mutation in the PLN gene is the most frequently identified mutation in Dutch cardiomyopathy patients. The mutation that arose 575-825 years ago is likely to have originated from the eastern part of the province of Friesland and is highly prevalent in the general population in the northern part of the Netherlands.

Planning and monitoring of patients for electrical cardioversion for atrial fibrillation.

OBJECTIVES: This study evaluated the waiting list for elective electrical cardioversion (ECV) for persistent atrial fibrillation (AF), focusing on when and why procedures were postponed. We compared the effects of management of the waiting list conducted by physicians versus management by nurse practitioners (NPs) and we evaluated the safety of our anticoagulating policy by means of bleeding or thromboembolic complications during and after ECV. BACKGROUND: Not all patients selected for ECV receive their treatment at the first planned instance due to a variety of reasons. These reasons are still undocumented. METHODS: We evaluated 250 consecutive patients with persistent AF admitted to our clinic for elective ECV. RESULTS: Within 5 to 6 weeks, 186 of 242 patients (77%) received ECV. The main reason for postponing an ECV was an inadequate international normalised ratio (INR); other reasons included spontaneous sinus rhythm and switch to rate control. A total of 23 of the 147 patients (16%) managed by the research physician were postponed due to an inadequate INR at admission versus 4 out of 98 patients (4%) managed by NPs (p = 0.005) CONCLUSION: An inadequate INR is the main reason for postponing an ECV. Management of ECV by NPs is safe and leads to less postponing on admission.

The cost of illness of atrial fibrillation: a systematic review of the recent literature.

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common cardiac arrhythmia, its prevalence increasing markedly with age. Atrial fibrillation is strongly associated with increased risk of morbidity, including stroke and thromboembolism. There is growing awareness of the economic burden of AF due to ageing populations and constrained public finances. A systematic review was performed (1990-2009). Cost studies for AF or atrial flutter were included; acute-onset and post-operative AF were excluded. Total, direct, and indirect costs were extracted. Of 875 records retrieved, 37 studies were included. The cost of managing individual AF patients is high. Direct-cost estimates ranged from $2000 to 14,200 per patient-year in the USA and from €450 to 3000 in Europe. This is comparable with other chronic conditions such as diabetes. The direct cost of AF represented 0.9-2.4% of the UK health-care budget in 2000 and had almost doubled over the previous 5 years. Inpatient care accounted for 50-70% of annual direct costs. In the USA, AF hospitalizations alone cost ∼$6.65 billion in 2005. In this first systematic review of the economic burden of AF, hospitalizations consistently represented the major cost driver. Costs and hospitalizations attributable to AF have increased markedly over recent decades and are expected to increase in future due to ageing populations.